London Preview
First the Icelandic volcano to throw off delicate travel and taper schedules, and now a forecast calling for the warmest weekend of the year in London…I must say, the marathon gods must be restless. Regardless, with fields as strong as Dave Bedford has put together, irrespective of the finishing times, the competition promises to be epic.
Talk of world records always attends London, though, in fact, they have only witnessed one on the men’s side - in 2002 when Khalid Khannouchi bested Paul Tergat and the debuting Haile Gebrselassie in 2:05:38. But as we have seen over the last two years, Haile’s 2:03:59 from Berlin `08 is no cakewalk, and will not easily succumb, especially if the temperatures rise to near 70 degrees as forecasters predict.
Going on two years old, Haile’s < 2:57 per kilometer (4:45/mile) mark is a solid standard. And with the rich talent competing in London, there is always the possibility that once the pacers complete their duties - assuming they even get those duties right - none of the favorites will want to lead his rivals out.
But as Claudio Berardelli, coach to three-time London champ Martin Lel and Duncan Kibet, the second fastest marathoner in history, says, “I think that people like (Tsegay) Kebede, after winning in Fukuoka and running alone the last 10k around 29:15, is now confident with the possibility to push the pace in the second part of the race, and (Zersenay)Tadese again, who has declared the world record, should be the one to go, although from 35k to 42k, its still something he never experienced after dropping out (London `09) around 35k.”
Haile’s 2:03:59 in Berlin 2008 and his 2:04:26 in Berlin `07 were both essentially time trials, though James Kwambai provided a late race spur in 2008. In London we have the creme de la creme of the sport, the returning podium from last year (Wanjiru, Kebede, Gharib), the reigning medallists from Beijing (Wanjiru, Gharib, Kebede), the current World Champion and runner-up (Abel Kirui, Emmanuel Mutai), and the second career marathon attempt by newly-minted half-marathon world record holder Zersenay Tadesse of Eritrea. In such a gathering there is a separate prestige to winning that may well trump a risky attack on the world record in less than ideal conditions.
While it is certainly true that one must risk losing in order to win, it is equally true that one must be willing to risk an attack from an even greater distance out to take down the world record. What has also been proven true over and over is how finely calibrated any world record attack must be to carry all the way to the finish. No man who has surveyed the initial half marathon in under 62:00 has ever returned at near that pace. (See accompanying chart provided by Ken Nakamura).
World fastest marathons’ Split/Lap times
Year/Venue 5Km 10Km Half 30Km 40Km 42.195K
Gebrselassie `08Berlin 14:35 29:13 62:05 1 1:28:27 1:57:34 2:03:59*
Gebrselassie 2007Berlin 14:44 29:27 62:29 1:28:57 1:58:10 2:04:26*
D. Kibet 2009Rotterdam 14:41 29:18 62:35 1:28:51 1:57:54 2:04:27
P. Makau 2010Rott 14:48 29:16 62:08 1:28:54 1:58:38 2:04:48
Gebrselassie 2008Dubai 14:17 28:39 61:27 1:28:01 1:58:20 2:04:53
P. Tergat 2003Berlin 15:01 29:58 63:04 1:29:25 1:58:38 2:04:55*
S. Wanjiru 2009London 14:08 28:30 61:36 1:28:35 1:58:32 2:05:10
Martin Lel 2008London 14:22 29:10 62:12 1:28:29 1:58:53 2:05:15
Kebede 2009 Fukuoka 15:02 29:53 63:05 1:29:47 1:59:01 2:05:18
Gebrselassie 2009Dubai ? 29:12 61:45 1:28:17 1:58:44 2:05:29
Khannouchi 2002London 14:44 29:37 62:46 1:29:01 1:59:11 2:05:38
Wanjiru 2009Chicago 14:34 29:11 62:01 1:28:46 1:58:56 2:05:41
Khannouchi 1999Chicago 15:09 29:55 63:05 1:29:40 1:59:19 2:05:42
V. Kipruto 2009Paris 14:50 29:45 62:46 1:29:26 1:59:31 2:05:47
W.Kipsang 2008Rott 14:57 29:45 62:54 1:29:41 1:59:24 2:05:49
RK Cheruiyto `10Boston 14:53 30:08 63:27 1:29:58 1:59:21 2:05:52
Haile’s split in Berlin `08 was 62:05. Last year in London the pacers exploded through 5K in 14:08 (sub 2:00 pace!) and galloped through the half in 61:35. The pace faltered shortly thereafter, erasing all chances for a world best. Haile’s 2:04:53 in Dubai 2008, history’s fifth best time, was split in 61:27. That’s as close as we’ve seen to a sub-62 being held. But once again, that was no race.
Sammy Wanjiru returns to defend his 2:05:10 course record from 2009 when he spurred the rabbits to a blistering first half (61:35), then took up the reigns at 18 miles with only fellow Olympic medallists Jaouad Gharib and Tsegay Kebede able to respond. This year Sammy tuned up for London with a lackluster 61:33 half-marathon in New Orleans in March, compared to a 61:08 ninth-place effort last year in Rotterdam.
Marathon geographer and Track & Fields News writer Sean Harnett told me at Boston last week that Sammy told him he is well prepared, and, as always, able to provoke his competition while sitting in their wake ready to take advantage when they tire. His favorite workout, says Sean, is “40k up-down” every Monday back home in Kenya. And if the weather delivers warmer conditions, remember, he was schooled in Japan since his teens, and had the stuff to attack warm conditions at the Beijing Games in 2008.
Wanjiru’s 2:06:32 performance in Beijing has become the stuff of legend, and a pivotal race in world marathon history. On the Olympic stage under rising temps, Sammy’s take-no-heed attack ripped the mantel of fear from the marathon distance. In his wake the young stallions of the sport have seemingly lost even a healthy respect for the distance, though Sunday’s heat could well reestablish some of the marathon’s fallen prestige.
With young lions like Wanjiru and Tsegay Kebede - both are 23 - Emmanuel Mutai, 25, runner-up to world champion Abel Kirui, 27, and recent world half-marathon record holder Zersenay Tadese, 28, commanding the odds sheets, some folks have lost faith in 37 year-old Jaouad Gharib of Morocco and 31 year-old Kenyan Duncan Kibet, last year’s Rotterdam champ at 2:04:27. Gharib has been a top contender for many years now, and held onto Wanjiru longer than anyone else in Beijing, and was only :17 back in London last April. But his career is beginning to add up in years, and may, like fellow Moroccan Goumri in Boston, be ready to cede positions to the younger guns. Duncan Kibet was the big attraction at Berlin last fall going up against Haile, but he didn’t last till half-way. Coach Berardelli says he is in good shape, though.
“Duncan is fine, healthy and mentally ready to take the fight; he is probably not far from last year Rotterdam shape but this is probably the most unpredictable race with such strong field. What a pity not to have Martin in the race!”
For the second straight year three-time London champ Martin Lel has been forced to withdraw with an injury. Not surprising for an athlete of his vintage, but you can almost hear the frustration in Claudio’s words. Lel’s savvy and late race speed is a major loss for the field.
Reigning world champion Abel Kirui told the Daily Standard that he was targeting the course record in his first attempt in London. But last year’s third placer at Rotterdam (2:05:03) concedes that the conditions could scuttle that goal, and a win in 2:06 would not be a bad consolation.
There is some question as to the overall soundness of Sammy Wanjiru’s back. He runs with a chesty form that places strain on his lower back, and he complained of discomfort following the chilled conditions in Chicago last fall. His tune up half-marathon (61:33) raises questions, though it was run in New Orleans in a Rock `n` Roll event - which have become more like guest appearances under the new management rather than deep international competitions. Even so, he whipped Lel in that race, and tuned up for London ’s course record win last year in 61:08 in Rotterdam in March, not a significant difference in time from Mardi Gras. Again, the warm weather may play to his advantage in strategy if not time.
The most dangerous unknown in the field has to be Zersenay Tadese of Ertitrea. He debuted in London last year, but, due to an illness, only lasted till 35k. He’s proven the ability to run away from everyone in the world on the turf (2007 IAAF World Cross Country champion - humid as hell there, too, in Mombassa), and the roads (three-time IAAF World Half-Marathon Champion). Only Keninise Bekele was able to handle his pace over 10,000 meters last summer at the Berlin World Track Championships (Tadese took silver in 26:50). If his new 58:22 world half record in Lisbon isn’t too sharp an edge, we may see the man the Science of Sport guys in South Africa have called “the most efficient runner in history” emerge fully into his wheelhouse event.
(Watch the Virgin London Marathon April 25 at 8 a.m. ET online at UniversalSports.com, and at 11 a.m. ET on UniSports TV. Josh Cox and I will provide the commentary for the TV show.)
Last 5 posts by Toni Reavis- London Recap - May 4th, 2010
- What are you running for? - May 3rd, 2010
- Solinsky AR 26:59.60!!! - May 2nd, 2010
- 1988 Olympic Gold Meets 2004 Silver - April 21st, 2010
- The Long Road to Boston - April 14th, 2010
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